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Thread: Upgrading Star Level Guide

  1. #1

    Default Upgrading Star Level Guide

    This is my first post in the evony forums and yes, it is a guide. This is not a gameplay strategy guide, just a mathematical analysis on the cheapest way to upgrade star levels.

    If you are not interested in the math used you may just skip to the conclusion

    But first i will explain the formulas used to draw these conclusions:

    The average upgrade cost per level = (the cost to upgrade to previous level + Gems used) / Success Rate

    So if you use 1 delicate gem to upgrade to level 1 then the average cost to get to level 1 is:
    1/.65 = 1.538 Delicate Gems

    level 2 is:
    (1.538+1)/.6 = 4.231 Delicate Gems

    Starting at level 4 it gets a little more difficult, you must do the same thing then subtract level 1 cost * fail rate:
    (9.51+4)/.8 - (1.538*.2) = 16.578 Delicate Gems
    This is to account for not losing the average amount invested on that level down each time you fail

    You stop doing this after level 8. Delicate and Flawless Gems must be calculated separately.

    Here are my results:



    note that after level 3 it is cheapest to use 4 Gems each time you are upgrading.

    I Chose to recommend using flawless gems at level 7 because the ratio of flawless to delicate is more consistent with drop rates, but feel free to change this slightly as needed. I would suggest saving up 2x as many as needed to upgrade an item to level 15 and then try because this is only an average, your results may vary.

    If anyone could take some time to confirm the validity of my approach and the correctness of my calculations i would appreciate it, thanks
    Last edited by DarkhoundDave; 08-06-2010 at 04:26 PM.

  2. #2
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    Thanks for the math! It looks spot on.

    In my guide I also suggested to use these exact amounts/gemtypes (1-1-1-4-4-4 / 4+), but I didn't calculate it. I was just estimating it, nice that it turned out to be correct

    I'm loving the average cost calculations also. +REP
    Last edited by Woldere; 08-04-2010 at 08:12 PM.

  3. #3

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    I worked on the same equation two weeks ago, so I confirm some of your findings.

    First, using 1 delicate gem from levels 1-3 is the most cost effective at those levels. From levels 4-6, 4 delicates is most cost effective. Beyond that it depends upon your gem ratio. I don't seem to get exactly twice as many delicates as flawless, lately it has been tilting pretty heavily toward delicate gems and I presently have 5x as many delicates as flawless.

    Second, if you're buying gems, as opposed to getting them from drops, then the point at which 4 flawless are more cost effective than 4 delicates is much lower. If you are coining star levels, you are better off farming delicates and supplementing with flawless, and then starting your flawless earlier, perhaps as early as 5. Unfortunately, I tossed the paper that had the exact figures.

    Third, I don't think your percent of success equation works out. The problem is that the percentages for success aren't in a linear relationship. They often move by 5%, but at several points they move by 10%. Level 13-15 are all 45%. Level 12 is 50%, level 11 is 55%, level 10 is 60%. But from there, the percentages for 4 flawless move at 10% per level 9-70, 8-80. But then it slips to 7-85% for 4 flawless.

    Fourth, I think your numbers end up predicting a bit too low. You compensate by stating it is an average and advising people to acquire double the number of gems, but in my own equations I did two things differently:

    1. I worked with "whole number attempts" rather than fractions. You'll never be able to pay .385937 of a gem. You make attempts, that either fail or succeed. So I started by calculating "attempts" needed, and then multiplying that by the gems required.

    2. I worked from the top down rather than the bottom up.

    Here's what I did:

    Number of successes desired at a given level / percent success at that level = number of attempts required at that level.

    Round the number of attempts up. You never get to make .2837 of an attempt. Technically, this will produce a higher estimate than the average, but it will produce a more realistic number that players can work with in-game to determine how many gems they need to have a decent chance of success at the next level.

    So if you're aiming for a level 15 success:

    Level 15: 1 success/.45 = 3 attempts when rounded (all numbers hereafter also rounded)
    Level 14: 3/.45 = 7
    level 13: 7/.45 = 16
    level 12: 16/.5 = 32
    level 11: 32/.55 = 59
    level 10: 59/.6 = 99
    level 9: 99 / .7 = 142
    level 8: 142 / .8 = 178
    level 7: 178 / .85 = 210

    746 attempts with flawless gems, or 2984 total flawless gems. Naturally this is also the number to go completely from 0 stars to level 15 stars with a reasonable assurance of success. I don't have time to calculate it all the way down to level 1 with all the delicate gems involved, and especially with the times where you fall back to a level greater than 1, which saves immensely on gems.

    This equation doesn't calculate an "average" but it does give one a pretty good sense of how many gems it would take to go from 0-15 on all star levels with a reasonable amount of success.

  4. #4
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    Can this please be moved to the Guides section? This is good stuff

  5. #5

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    can someone also post the picture as an attachment to bbs.evony i cant view certain image sites and im sure i am not alone.

  6. #6
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    Heh I got pretty much these same numbers lil while back its good stuff.

    I've found but so far for me, that evony doesn't seem to favour these numbers lol and i've had the bad end of the stick lol

    Spawn- AgeII Na13 - Massacre Founder
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  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by 0Spawn0 View Post
    Heh I got pretty much these same numbers lil while back its good stuff.

    I've found but so far for me, that evony doesn't seem to favour these numbers lol and i've had the bad end of the stick lol
    I wonder how much of that is confirmation bias. When I don't count and just wing it, I tend to remember getting results that are pretty bad. When I do a bunch of upgrades at once and then calculate how close to the odds they are, I actually get numbers that are amazingly close to the expected percentages.

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by X~Calibur View Post
    I worked on the same equation two weeks ago, so I confirm some of your findings.
    First, using 1 delicate gem from levels 1-3 is the most cost effective at those levels. From levels 4-6, 4 delicates is most cost effective. Beyond that it depends upon your gem ratio. I don't seem to get exactly twice as many delicates as flawless, lately it has been tilting pretty heavily toward delicate gems and I presently have 5x as many delicates as flawless.
    I agree and did note that the point where you start to use flawless depends on your ratio, and i am not going to argue about drop rates, if you really have that many delicate then doing delicate for level 7 as well will change the average to 2886.55 to 669.343 or 4.3 to 1 ratio, another level would be way too much of a change but i haven't calculated it

    Quote Originally Posted by X~Calibur View Post
    Second, if you're buying gems, as opposed to getting them from drops, then the point at which 4 flawless are more cost effective than 4 delicates is much lower. If you are coining star levels, you are better off farming delicates and supplementing with flawless, and then starting your flawless earlier, perhaps as early as 5. Unfortunately, I tossed the paper that had the exact figures.
    i was simply assuming that most players were not going to drop 350-400 dollars to get their gem levels up, yes the analysis would be different if you were going to buy them

    Quote Originally Posted by X~Calibur View Post
    Third, I don't think your percent of success equation works out. The problem is that the percentages for success aren't in a linear relationship. They often move by 5%, but at several points they move by 10%. Level 13-15 are all 45%. Level 12 is 50%, level 11 is 55%, level 10 is 60%. But from there, the percentages for 4 flawless move at 10% per level 9-70, 8-80. But then it slips to 7-85% for 4 flawless.
    if this is the case and i can get a few people to post the actual rates then i will recalculate, i was only assuming the relationship was linear as it made sense to me. I have never gotten my star levels very high

    Quote Originally Posted by X~Calibur View Post
    Fourth, I think your numbers end up predicting a bit too low. You compensate by stating it is an average and advising people to acquire double the number of gems, but in my own equations I did two things differently:

    1. I worked with "whole number attempts" rather than fractions. You'll never be able to pay .385937 of a gem. You make attempts, that either fail or succeed. So I started by calculating "attempts" needed, and then multiplying that by the gems required.

    2. I worked from the top down rather than the bottom up.
    1. this method does not calculate average number of attempts - just the average cost, and averages don't have to be a possible outcome. it is just the result of adding up the cost of all possible outcomes and dividing by the total number of possible outcomes. it is meant to give you and idea, and the more you round the less accurate you get.

    2. you can't start from the top and work down because the cost of levels upgrades compounds from the bottom up. in other words if you fail upgrading from level 14 to 15 you have to start over paying for levels 1 to forteen all over again. if you fail at level 1, you do not have to pay for levels 2 to 15 since you havent gotten there yet

    also, you forgot to account for the fact that star levels 4-8 don't set you back all the way, this makes a huge difference in the total cost.

    thanks for the response i appreciate the feedback X-Calibur

  9. #9
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    pretty good guide.
    sticky nomination anyone?

  10. #10

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    here is the upload of the picture
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