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Thread: Upgrading Star Level Guide

  1. #11

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    also, you forgot to account for the fact that star levels 4-8 don't set you back all the way, this makes a huge difference in the total cost.
    No, I didn't.

    I wrote

    I don't have time to calculate it all the way down to level 1 with all the delicate gems involved, and especially with the times where you fall back to a level greater than 1, which saves immensely on gems.
    I ran my calculations for flawless only and stopped before I reached the point of having to calculate all the attempts from the delicates.

    More later....

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by DarkhoundDave View Post
    1. this method does not calculate average number of attempts - just the average cost, and averages don't have to be a possible outcome. it is just the result of adding up the cost of all possible outcomes and dividing by the total number of possible outcomes. it is meant to give you an idea, and the more you round the less accurate you get.

    2. you can't start from the top and work down because the cost of levels upgrades compounds from the bottom up. in other words if you fail upgrading from level 14 to 15 you have to start over paying for levels 1 to forteen all over again. if you fail at level 1, you do not have to pay for levels 2 to 15 since you havent gotten there yet
    I think we agree on what your method does. The question is the degree to which it is relevant and useful. You already had to hedge by suggesting that people collect double the number of gems outlined in you presentation. I simply wrote an equation that builds that "hedge" into the equation. In other words, from a practical gameplay standpoint, the player wants to know how many gems should I have in my possession if I want to make an attempt at level 11, and still be assured of making it back to 10 should I fail. My equation gives them an exact number. Your equation requires them to look at your average gem cost, and then do the fudge factor in their heads.

    Compounding isn't an issue because my own assumptions more rigorously treat the problem of compounding than those in the method above. By rounding up, I require a greater number of expected attempts at the high levels, which is then factored into every single level below it.

  3. #13

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    Quote Originally Posted by X~Calibur View Post
    I think we agree on what your method does. The question is the degree to which it is relevant and useful. You already had to hedge by suggesting that people collect double the number of gems outlined in you presentation. I simply wrote an equation that builds that "hedge" into the equation. In other words, from a practical gameplay standpoint, the player wants to know how many gems should I have in my possession if I want to make an attempt at level 11, and still be assured of making it back to 10 should I fail. My equation gives them an exact number. Your equation requires them to look at your average gem cost, and then do the fudge factor in their heads.

    Compounding isn't an issue because my own assumptions more rigorously treat the problem of compounding than those in the method above. By rounding up, I require a greater number of expected attempts at the high levels, which is then factored into every single level below it.
    i am afraid i have to disagree with you, your incomplete (by your own admission) calculations could never come up with an exact number as we are dealing with probablility, there are always going to be "unlucky" people or outliers who get an abnormally "unlucky" result. this mean that there is never an exact calculation, i could not absolutelly guarantee you that if you used 100k delicate gems and 50k flawless gems that you would get even a single item to level 15, (but i wouldn't believe you or anyone who claimed this)

    i am not assuring anyone success if they use 2X the amount, as a matter of fact if you want to be almost sure of being able to get back to level ten i would stop when you only have 4X level 10's average requirements to be safe.

    the point is that assuming my calculations are correct, when if somone repeats this method 13X (one for each item) the majority of people will fall withing 10% or so of this average cost

  4. #14
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    Added to the Guide Library good work.

  5. #15

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    Good stuff..

    Now if my luck followed the average, I spent 4 times the average needed to get my ring to lvl 10 and it's still sitting at 8 right now........

  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by X~Calibur View Post
    I think we agree on what your method does. The question is the degree to which it is relevant and useful. You already had to hedge by suggesting that people collect double the number of gems outlined in you presentation. I simply wrote an equation that builds that "hedge" into the equation. In other words, from a practical gameplay standpoint, the player wants to know how many gems should I have in my possession if I want to make an attempt at level 11, and still be assured of making it back to 10 should I fail. My equation gives them an exact number. Your equation requires them to look at your average gem cost, and then do the fudge factor in their heads.

    Compounding isn't an issue because my own assumptions more rigorously treat the problem of compounding than those in the method above. By rounding up, I require a greater number of expected attempts at the high levels, which is then factored into every single level below it.
    That's where I disagree with you.
    You can not give players an exact number of gems needed to reach a level and they be assured that if they have that number they will achieve it.
    You can compute a number of gems that would give them a certain odds to reach their target but that's about as far as you go.....

    As soon as chance is involved and your chance of success isn't guaranteed, the number of gems needed to be assured to success would be infinite..........

    If people want a better idea on how much it would cost them to reach a certain level it probably better to compute the number of gems needed if you want to reach a certain odds to reach said level, Dave doesn't do that either, but the maths get more complicated if you were to do that..
    Lets say you want the number of gems needed to have 90% chance to reach lvl 11, it would be a lot more than what Dave computed.....( if the chance of success is 0.5, his formula just gives you the number of gems to have 75% chance to succeed...).

    On average Dave number do seem right and even if due to luck the number of gems you will use to reach a certain level might vary for one item but the cost to get the total set will be very close to what Dave computed time the number of items in the set ( because it will average out between items).
    Last edited by Aildiin; 08-05-2010 at 09:39 PM.

  7. #17

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    Quote Originally Posted by Aildiin View Post
    Good stuff..

    Now if my luck followed the average, I spent 4 times the average needed to get my ring to lvl 10 and it's still sitting at 8 right now........
    unfortunately that can happen to anyone, the chance of being set back to 0 when upgrading level 9 or 10 three times in a row is 6.4%. anyone in that percentile would easily pay 4 times the average to get to level 10. and there are other ways to make the cost 4X the average as well

    math (you can just ignore it if you don't care):

    % chance setback level 9 is:
    20% .2
    level 10:
    25% or .25
    level 9 or 10:
    .25 + .2 - .25*.2 = .4 or 40%
    level 9 or 10 three times:
    .4*.4*.4 = .064 or 6.4%
    see Basic Laws of Probablility

  8. #18

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    Sticky alone nah, but i think if Dark is willing it would go great in Asmos Age 2 guide

  9. #19
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    I just succeeded 8 * '11 to 12' and 2 * '12 to 13' in a row... what are the odds of that? :P (Edit: 0,158 % lol)

    Then I spent 700 flawless and 200 delicates on 1 gear and got the other side of variance.
    Last edited by Woldere; 08-05-2010 at 10:49 PM.

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by AllDayXL View Post
    Sticky alone nah, but i think if Dark is willing it would go great in Asmos Age 2 guide
    i agree, this guide should not be stickied as it will not change how people play the game, just help them get their star level up faster.

    as for putting it in asmos guide that might be a possiblity eventually but remember that this guide has only been out for about a day, it needs more time for critique.

    also can anyone confirm what x-calibur was saying about the base % chance of success not going down by 5% every time? he is the only one i have heard say that so far.

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