The Butterfly Effect

As the poll states, I would like to know whether you believe in the butterfly effect or not.

For those of you have not heard of the butterfly effect here is an explanation:

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Originally Posted by Wikipedia

The butterfly effect is a metaphor that encapsulates the concept of sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory; namely that small differences in the initial condition of a dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system. Although this may appear to be an esoteric and unusual behavior, it is exhibited by very simple systems: for example, a ball placed at the crest of a hill might roll into any of several valleys depending on slight differences in initial position. The butterfly effect is a common trope in fiction when presenting scenarios involving time travel and with "what if" cases where one storyline diverges at the moment of a seemingly minor event resulting in two significantly different outcomes.

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The butterfly effect is often referred to in relation to weather. It offers an explanation as to why it is very difficult to accurately predict long-term weather. (Over one week.) The name comes from the fact that the flap of a butterfly?s wings in Brazil could set off a tornado in Texas. This might seem outrageous at first but bear with me.

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Originally Posted by Wikipedia

The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that may ultimately alter the path of a tornado or delay, accelerate or even prevent the occurrence of a tornado in a certain location. The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale alterations of events (compare: domino effect). Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different. While the butterfly does not "cause" the tornado in the sense of providing the energy for the tornado, it does "cause" it in the sense that the flap of its wings is an essential part of the initial conditions resulting in a tornado, and without that flap that particular tornado would not have existed.

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Basically, a tiny change in the initial conditions can end up drastically affecting the outcome. Just because we don't know the chain of events in between the butterfly's flapping of its wings and the tornado doesn't mean it's not true. I'll take Concorde for example. (I apologise if this is a bad example; it's the best I could think of.)

This is the chain of events: Mechanic fails to tighten bolt on titanium strip from Continental Airlines DC-10 -> Strip falls off -> Strip punctures tire, causing it to explode -> Piece of rubber impacts on fuel tank, resulting in shock-wave which causes a fuel valve in the wing to burst open -> Major fuel leak ensues from tank -> Fuel ignites due to sparking electrical landing gear wiring severed by another piece of the exploded tyre -> Crew shuts down engine number 2 -> Engine number 1 surges and fails to produce sufficient power -> Concorde enters a rapid pitch-up then a violent descent, rolling left and crashing tail-low into the Hotelissimo Hotel in Gonesse. -> All 100 passengers plus the 9 crew are killed -> A presumed fault in the design causes the whole fleet to be put into retirement -> 100s of millions worth of planes are stripped for scrap metal and Concorde is no more.

Now, I hope I was able to get the idea across with that little anecdote. The little bolt caused the whole fleet of Concordes to be put out of action. The bolt represents the butterfly while the Concorde's retirement represents the tornado.

I accept that there could be faults in the Concorde story but I'd like the discussion to focus on the butterfly effect.

no, and i also don't accept the infinite monkey theorem

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Originally Posted by Balaam

no, and i also don't accept the infinite monkey theorem

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In regards to the butterfly effect, is there any particular reason you say no or is it simply too far fetched for you to believe?

I won't ask you to justify your reason for not accepting the infinite monkey theorem as that is the subject for another thread.

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Originally Posted by Richie_B

In regards to the butterfly effect, is there any particular reason you say no or is it simply too far fetched for you to believe?

I won't ask you to justify your reason for not accepting the infinite monkey theorem as that is the subject for another thread.

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random acts that culminate in a massive impact is my issue
there's a more likely explanation for weather events than the flutter of butterflies in brazil

although the mathematics could prove it possible... i'm more of a occam's razor kinda guy

I belive.... those butterflys are Evil!
http://t2.gstatic.com/images?q=tbn:A...MdWDM2BuNpZ-6g

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Originally Posted by Balaam

random acts that culminate in a massive impact is my issue
there's a more likely explanation for weather events than the flutter of butterflies in brazil

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What Richie B quoted above does allow that the butterlfy isn't the only cause. It says that it's essentially a combination of that wingflap, added to a number of other factors that causes it, without one of which the hypothetical tornado wouldn't have occured.

Anyway, what's "more likely"? Can you point to any weather system and say "This is obviously what caused it," without looking very short-term at it?

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Originally Posted by Bree Fletcher

Anyway, what's "more likely"? Can you point to any weather system and say "This is obviously what caused it," without looking very short-term at it?

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nope :D

i'm just more convinced by the more conventional science that explains the cause and effects...the one that doesn't include butterflies in their calculations

i'm not saying that science is 100%
let's face it, the weather forecasters are wrong all the time and when there is a tornado or hurricane they're often wrong even trying to predict the path

i'm just not convinced that (as an example) my campfire could throw up a spark that injures a moth, who will fly lopsided for 10 hrs thus causing a slight deviation in the air temperature triggering a front which would bring on armageddon

i understand the concept of the straw that broke the camel's back i just don't believe that you could demonstrate the broken back brought on by a single straw, the the other tonne of straw is the more significant contributor

i hope it's ok i'm a little main stream on this point ;)

The thing about the butterfly effect is that if there are a very large number of random events, such as in the creation of a tornado, that allows for an exponentially larger number of variables which could indeed be infinite if the number of random events is large enough. So in theory that would allow for an infinite number of possible future outcomes. Or an infinite number of futures, if you like. So you could get into your time machine and go back to the distant past and step on your butterfly and as long as your time machine was able to travel back to the same possible future that you came from, not have changed anything because in your timeline or possible future, it didn't matter that you killed the butterfly at all. This of course is the basis for the concept of a Universe of multiple variables, or a Multiverse.

Chaos theory is useful tool in computing complex equations with multiple variables and has led to the development of fuzzy logic programming. Sorry, what was the question?

The Butterfly Effect is just cause and effect taken way out of proportion. It's a theory backed by absurd coincidences.

But I would like to hear the people's explanation of how they believe in it only to a certain extent.. What does that mean?

i think its a very valid idea. we cant account for all that happens in life and this is one idea that would help to account for the unknowable-unknowns.
is the tornado that ran down your street and ate every house but your own the act of some vengeful or negligent god? or the out come of several variables all adding up to one massive storm that would be predictable if we knew all the variables involved.
i'm going with the second because i really cant blame a diety for the weather and what happens in my life. i mean if someone robs me its not the fault of some god or demon. its the choice of the person who did the robing. imo.
but now i've gone down a dark road and need to bring it back around.

what i'm saying is it makes more sense to me that the reality i deal with every day is the result of an unknown number of variables from an unknown number of variables to create something unpredictable.