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Thread: Hero Gear research mats drops

  1. #11

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    "look into it" ---> nothing happens

  2. #12

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawnseeker View Post
    I'll look into this issue, but I suspect that (as usual) its simple variance.
    thanks man

  3. #13
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawnseeker View Post
    I'll look into this issue, but I suspect that (as usual) its simple variance.
    What do you mean by simple variance?. If entire alliances have noticed a massive drop in the chance to get an amulet or materials (other than gems) then it was either deliberate change or a bug.

    Deleting the original post about the issue is interesting. Why was that?. It was about a valid issue that people are agreeing about.

    I contacted the top alliance on our server and they noticed this as well. I emailed EVERY member in our alliance and NOT one player reported getting any material or amulets lately.

    I appreciate you looking into it.
    Scythe on S3, W12, etc.
    Scyther S128 Retired..
    Scythe NA4 Retired..
    RuinUrDay S146 (Retired).
    +REP me if I helped you.

  4. #14

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawnseeker View Post
    I'll look into this issue, but I suspect that (as usual) its simple variance.
    Does each item/medal have a different drop rate? I thought it is the same for all items/medals. If the drop rate is the same for everything then this shouldn't be a variance issue. He is referring to specific items not dropping. Not items/medals not dropping as a whole. Also, does the variance differ from server to server? If it does than I shouldn't be having the same exact issue as the Scythe does in post #13 because we are on different servers. I have noticed the exact same thing happening and so has my alliance members.

    Right now the only thing that drops for me is medals and gems. Nothing else. Been that way for quite some time now.

    Quote Originally Posted by scythe View Post
    What do you mean by simple variance?.
    Here is Dawnseeker's answer to that question.

    http://bbs.evony.com/showthread.php?...light=variance

  5. #15

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    Quote Originally Posted by jobu55 View Post
    Does each item/medal have a different drop rate? I thought it is the same for all items/medals. If the drop rate is the same for everything then this shouldn't be a variance issue. He is referring to specific items not dropping. Not items/medals not dropping as a whole. Also, does the variance differ from server to server? If it does than I shouldn't be having the same exact issue as the Scythe does in post #13 because we are on different servers. I have noticed the exact same thing happening and so has my alliance members.

    Right now the only thing that drops for me is medals and gems. Nothing else. Been that way for quite some time now.



    Here is Dawnseeker's answer to that question.

    http://bbs.evony.com/showthread.php?...light=variance
    Sorry, when I said variance I should have explained what variance is. Any time you have a chance of something happening, the actual results will vary from the predicted chance by a certain amount.

    The example I like to use is flipping a coin. If you flip a coin 10 times, you might get 7 heads and 3 tails, while you would expect to get 5 heads and 5 tails. This does not mean your coin is unbalanced. In fact, it is expected that most people flipping coins will get uneven results, because of variance. Some people will get more heads and some will get more tails, but overall, the heads to tails ratio will be very close to 50/50.

    Evony is more complicated than flipping a coin (obviously) but when I say that players not getting drops is probably due to variance, it means that some players will get more drops than expected and some will get less drops than expected, but over time, this will tend to even out.

    The forums tend to accentuate the negative side of the equation, because people don't come and complain on the forums about getting too many drops.

    I hope this makes sense, and when I hear back from the team on the issue, I'll post here.
    Legendary Hero

  6. #16

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawnseeker View Post
    I'll look into this issue, but I suspect that (as usual) its simple variance.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dawnseeker View Post
    Sorry, when I said variance I should have explained what variance is. Any time you have a chance of something happening, the actual results will vary from the predicted chance by a certain amount.

    The example I like to use is flipping a coin. If you flip a coin 10 times, you might get 7 heads and 3 tails, while you would expect to get 5 heads and 5 tails. This does not mean your coin is unbalanced. In fact, it is expected that most people flipping coins will get uneven results, because of variance. Some people will get more heads and some will get more tails, but overall, the heads to tails ratio will be very close to 50/50.

    Evony is more complicated than flipping a coin (obviously) but when I say that players not getting drops is probably due to variance, it means that some players will get more drops than expected and some will get less drops than expected, but over time, this will tend to even out.

    The forums tend to accentuate the negative side of the equation, because people don't come and complain on the forums about getting too many drops.

    I hope this makes sense, and when I hear back from the team on the issue, I'll post here.
    Does each item/medal have a different drop rate? I thought it is the same for all items/medals. If the drop rate is the same for everything then this shouldn't be a variance issue. Right? He is referring to specific items not dropping. Not items/medals not dropping as a whole. There is a theme developing here and that is specific items are not dropping that used to drop. If this is a variance issue then at some point we should start seeing these things fall but we are not. The problem is we are all at 0% drop rate and this has been going on for some time now.

  7. #17

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    im calling shananigans im sending 40to 60 attacks out a day and i havent seen any iron ore crude gems wood or fabric in over a week

  8. #18
    Join Date
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    I cannot recall seeing a single item drop, of the items needed for workshop uppgrades. I do not know what the original dropchance is, and ive mostly been farming npcs, 5 and 10

    I dont know the exact number i have farmed, but enough to have over 100 wisdom and courage medals after uppgrading my ranks, and doing the hero quest ( im assuming this can be used to accumalate the amount of hits done )

    I appreciate dawnseeker looking into this. Could anyone , if they got a drop, supply a battlereport where it shows ?

  9. #19

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawnseeker View Post
    Evony is more complicated than flipping a coin (obviously) but when I say that players not getting drops is probably due to variance, it means that some players will get more drops than expected and some will get less drops than expected, but over time, this will tend to even out.

    The forums tend to accentuate the negative side of the equation, because people don't come and complain on the forums about getting too many drops.

    I hope this makes sense, and when I hear back from the team on the issue, I'll post here.
    I've never seen materials drop. I have seen reports from others showing that they got one, but I've never seen one for myself. I also believe these people stating that they have seen a decrease lately...

    I have been able to get enough rose medals on na1 now to make Baronet, but I'm still struggling to get the 5 to make Major. Getting to Baronet took perhaps 30-35 attacks. I needed 4 (I got lucky and got a junior medal box from the wheel), so that's roughly a 1/8 drop, or 12.5%. I might have gotten 1 lion medal out of all of that too, so I'll be generous and bump that to somewhere between 1/6 and 1/7, or 13-14%.

    While this is FAR GREATER than the super-low rates on the newer Age I servers, the difficulty is in finishing the medal donation quests. Even if I am real generous and say that there is a 20% drop rate on roses, to complete just that quest alone means a minimum of 250 attacks.

    250 attacks, for just that one quest. That is "a grind". It gets worse if it is 15%. To complete the donation of 50 rose medals with 15% chance of getting a rose medal means you have to do 50/0.15 = 334 attacks... That is a serious amount of grinding on repetitive tasks... If I'm able to do 30 attacks a day, that's 11 days. If I can only do 15 attacks a day, that's 22 days. That's just for completing the ONE quest. You still have to complete all the other quests in that series to get to "The Final Goal", which at these low rates could take 6 months or more to complete...

    Most players know you need to make money, and most don't question your right to be able to make money. Even as critical as I can be, I don't question your right to be able to make money. That said though, the amount of grinding, repetitive play just to move forward even slightly in the game can actually be a disincentive towards spending money, not an incentive.

    Basically, most games have around 4 difficulty settings:

    Beginner
    Normal
    Difficult
    Insane

    As it is right now, medal and material drops are essentially in the "Insane" category. You all might make more money, and make more people happy, by easing up a bit and moving it into "Difficult" instead... Move the drop rates up to 35% or so.

  10. #20

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    Quote Originally Posted by Dawnseeker View Post

    The example I like to use is flipping a coin. If you flip a coin 10 times, you might get 7 heads and 3 tails, while you would expect to get 5 heads and 5 tails. This does not mean your coin is unbalanced. In fact, it is expected that most people flipping coins will get uneven results, because of variance. Some people will get more heads and some will get more tails, but overall, the heads to tails ratio will be very close to 50/50.

    I snipped a bit, to make this post a little neater.

    If you flip a coin 3 times in a row, and it comes up Heads, you cannot tell if the coin is rigged or not. The reason you cannot tell, is that the sample size is too small - it could just be random chance (or "simple variance" as Dawnseeker refers to it).

    However, if you flip a coin 10,000 times in a row, and it comes up Heads, you know something is up. This is because the sample size is big enough to be Statistically Significant. I capitalized that term because it's very important. The number of flips where you know the coin is rigged is probably smaller than 10,000, I believe you can google "Standard Deviation" and figure out the formula to use, if you care.

    I just went another day, and zero amulets have droppped. I have not counted all the reports again. Over 100 war reports 3 days in a row, this is not random chance.

    Hero materials stopped dropping a few days before the start of this thread (april 25th approximately) and still do not drop. Amulets stopped dropping sometime near the weekend, if I had to take an educated guess, it was the Saturday afternoon emergency maintenance to stop the barracks/troop bug, but I have no data at all to back this up.

    I have no idea what I said in the other thread, to get the entire thread deleted, but I apologize. If something in this post is offensive, please modify this post, and I can compare it with my saved copy, so it doesn't happen again.

    EDIT: Sorry, this entire thread is referring to NPC attacks. Amulets still drop in Player vs Player attacks (if other conditions are met).

    Thanks for reading!

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