
Originally Posted by
sanford
I snipped a bit, to make this post a little neater.
If you flip a coin 3 times in a row, and it comes up Heads, you cannot tell if the coin is rigged or not. The reason you cannot tell, is that the sample size is too small - it could just be random chance (or "simple variance" as Dawnseeker refers to it).
However, if you flip a coin 10,000 times in a row, and it comes up Heads, you know something is up. This is because the sample size is big enough to be Statistically Significant. I capitalized that term because it's very important. The number of flips where you know the coin is rigged is probably smaller than 10,000, I believe you can google "Standard Deviation" and figure out the formula to use, if you care.
I just went another day, and zero amulets have droppped. I have not counted all the reports again. Over 100 war reports 3 days in a row, this is not random chance.
Hero materials stopped dropping a few days before the start of this thread (april 25th approximately) and still do not drop. Amulets stopped dropping sometime near the weekend, if I had to take an educated guess, it was the Saturday afternoon emergency maintenance to stop the barracks/troop bug, but I have no data at all to back this up.
I have no idea what I said in the other thread, to get the entire thread deleted, but I apologize. If something in this post is offensive, please modify this post, and I can compare it with my saved copy, so it doesn't happen again.
EDIT: Sorry, this entire thread is referring to NPC attacks. Amulets still drop in Player vs Player attacks (if other conditions are met).
Thanks for reading!
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