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Thread: Why Star Upgrades fail at +100%

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  1. #1
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    Default Why Star Upgrades fail at +100%

    The reason star upgrades fail at over 100% chance of success is because Evony includes past failures/successes into the algorythm. I am not 100% sure on this but based on my experience I am 99.999999% sure.

    For example:
    Say you upgrade a star from level 12-13 (45% chance of success)
    That means a -55% (NEGATIVE) is added to your rate of success for the next upgrade... or something like that. I am not sure if it is a full -55%. But I am almost certain that part of it is worked into the algorythm and it affects the chances of the next upgrade. This is why if you get lucky and upgrade a few stars in a row, the chance of failure on the next upgrade grows exponentially. It does NOT reset immediately. This is why you get failures at 115% chance of success. It seems to reset after an extended period of time, like hours or a day.
    The star upgrade algorythm needs to be modified so that successes and failures do not influence the next upgrade. But the good news is that we now know that if you succeed on a star upgrade, then try to get multiple failures on lower level gear stars. After you rack up some multiple failures then go back and try to upgrade a high level strar.
    Last edited by japanpimp; 10-10-2010 at 07:15 PM.

    Thanks to Boleslav for the Afro Samurai Signature series.
    I have made a few video guides that may help you.
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  2. #2
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    one thing I am trying out is to keep 1 gearpiece set low, like boots with say star lvl6, get the fail on that 1st by using enough gems to for the 50% chance, then I attempt the higher star lvls of 11-12, which should increase the chance of success if the 1st attempt was made to fail, in theroy
    [Alliance]<18:14>[Tribunus]: All Hail Reet, King DoDo, Ruler of the dysfunctional backwoods territory of Bavaria, degenerate capital of Evony

  3. #3
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    Quote Originally Posted by REET View Post
    one thing I am trying out is to keep 1 gearpiece set low, like boots with say star lvl6, get the fail on that 1st by using enough gems to for the 50% chance, then I attempt the higher star lvls of 11-12, which should increase the chance of success if the 1st attempt was made to fail, in theroy
    Yeah, good idea. I actually started doing that just before I made this thread. It does seem to help. If you set aside one gear as a star "failure" set and use it to try to rack up failures. Then when it gets a few failures then move to another gear with high level stars and try to upgrade it. It seems to bring more success. But the biggest success assistant seems to be time. If I suceed in upgrading to a high level then I back off for a day or two. Things seem to"reset" and past failures/successes don't seem to be factors after "x" time has gone by.

    Thanks to Boleslav for the Afro Samurai Signature series.
    I have made a few video guides that may help you.
    Please read the link below.
    My Evony Videos

  4. #4

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    It doesn't matter what the secret math is behind the scenes. Obviously there is a penalty of some sort that makes 115% less than 100%. The point is that the penalty is not reflected in the calculation Evony shows on screen.

    If 115% of gems at star level 12 is actually 80% chance of success, then the screen should say 80% chance of success. You should be able to keep adding gems to get to 100% or more. People spend money on gems and deserve some honesty about what they are PAYING for.
    Quote Originally Posted by Lazzzzzzzzalicious! View Post
    i started to read this and agree with everything rota says. if people just listened to him the forums would be a better place.
    Quote Originally Posted by Dawnseeker View Post
    Rota is correct.

    I don't even understand the question.

  5. #5
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    Quote Originally Posted by Rota View Post
    It doesn't matter what the secret math is behind the scenes. Obviously there is a penalty of some sort that makes 115% less than 100%. The point is that the penalty is not reflected in the calculation Evony shows on screen.

    If 115% of gems at star level 12 is actually 80% chance of success, then the screen should say 80% chance of success. You should be able to keep adding gems to get to 100% or more. People spend money on gems and deserve some honesty about what they are PAYING for.
    Precisely...As it currently appears in game, the representation that a chance of success is greater than 100% is materially misleading.

    Historical Heroes :39 Historical Cities :3 3 1 *

  6. #6

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rota View Post
    It doesn't matter what the secret math is behind the scenes. Obviously there is a penalty of some sort that makes 115% less than 100%. The point is that the penalty is not reflected in the calculation Evony shows on screen.

    If 115% of gems at star level 12 is actually 80% chance of success, then the screen should say 80% chance of success. You should be able to keep adding gems to get to 100% or more. People spend money on gems and deserve some honesty about what they are PAYING for.
    You must spread some Reputation around before giving it to Rota again.

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Rota View Post
    It doesn't matter what the secret math is behind the scenes. Obviously there is a penalty of some sort that makes 115% less than 100%. The point is that the penalty is not reflected in the calculation Evony shows on screen.

    If 115% of gems at star level 12 is actually 80% chance of success, then the screen should say 80% chance of success. You should be able to keep adding gems to get to 100% or more. People spend money on gems and deserve some honesty about what they are PAYING for.
    What is this 115% thing?

  8. #8

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    Quote Originally Posted by DaveV View Post
    What is this 115% thing?
    At very low levels, if you choose 4 flawless gems, the percentage exceeds 100%. 15% per flawless gem added onto the base for that level.

  9. #9

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    They fail at 100% because this is Evony.

  10. #10

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    We have found that it helps to first start running around in some tight circles for 2 minutes, followed by sending a 187k bare archer wave at Atlantis and within 10 seconds of it hitting clicking the star upgrade with a historical pol hero with wisemen set as mayor and the Queen idle with attacker set.

    Some of our members reported a failure even with this procedure... but when we checked what they did, it turned out that they were either running circles the wrong direction or they attacked Atlantis from Burgundy. Some speculate that it matters if your IP address is registered North or South of the Equator too...

    cheers,
    DeVerm.

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