^ I agree on all bullet points, that is why I have not included them in the group.

Even Alexander the Great had a snit of a time trying to exert force in that region.

I hope the best for them, but there comes a time when what's what is what's what. especially in light of recent events. -.o

The ocean however is wide open. A well formed, disciplined naval force can control access to any land mass. There-in lies the purpose of the list's vague prerequisite of access to a shoreline. As with the above's choke point, the lists strategically exists to weather the coming storms.

Those hidden powers you speak of, be them burgers, or illums or rosers, or charley's motley cruwe, will have to intensify negotiations. Power held by them would be disrupted. and as Digger points out, if the 2/3rds fell because they couldnt get the job done which needs to be done, and fall into decay, pockets of survivors possibly could form up into City States, and those into a hedgepoge Conglomerate leading to some sort of Empire, such as the ancient Roman's had. when the dust settles of course. It is not beyond logic to think that this could be the history of the future. [hypothetically of course]

I would or could see that in 2041 the established "Empires" would be

The Slavic/Rusk Magistratum
The Suleiman Caliphate
China
The United Sovereign States of Africa
The Amazon Protectorate
The European Hegemony Trade Union
The Moon, Independent Free Colony [IFC]
Canada
The Indian/Sri Lankan Sultanate
Japanese/IndoCino Empire

and The Affiliation of Free Nations formally known as the jDGAFAFnm group