Great speech Alusair...
It doesn't hold up with me and my friends though, because I know who the doctor is, I know who the seer is, I know who mutated you, and I know your role. For everyone else, here's how I know what Alusair is.
I started Civ/Chaos Seed. I activated on myself to try and get Phoenix or Ghost. I got a mutation and ended up Chimera. For the rest of that round I was Con Artist (couldn't use). This round I'm gambler. I gambled me and Alusair to try and set up an alliance as in previous games, and discovered her role as Mafia/Chaos Seed.
Since, I have been conversing with people, and confirmed my reliability as much as I can.
Please, guys, don't listen to Alusair...It's possible she is immortal, but we'll just have to risk needing to use 2 lynches.
If I was mafia, would I really have risked the identity of a fellow mafia, or myself, just to find out the roles of someone who had a 1 in 10 chance of being a special role that would actually pose a threat?
Here's the stats.
1 in 20 chance that the mafia won and she was found to be a special role (Doc/Seer).
1 in 2 chance that Alusair won and we lost a mafia.
9 in 20 chance that mafia won and Alusair was found to be a Civ.
Or, the actual events:
1 in 2 chance the mafia found me to be a regular civ.
2 in 5 chance I won and found an ally in Alusair.
1 in 10 chance that I won and Alusair was a mafia.
For those that didn't understand why I did that, I'm showing the risks if I was a mafia gambling an known non-mafia vs the risks that me being a civ, and gambling an unknown.






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