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Thread: A Question of True Randomness

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  1. #1
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    Default A Question of True Randomness

    I know this subject has been beaten to death, revived, and then beaten to death again, but I was idly watching the messages for what players had been getting from the wheel today and I noticed something.

    Some days, there are a greater number of certain things being received and they seem to get won in droves.

    For example, either yesterday or the day before, it was Advanced Tax Policies and Speech Texts. Today, most of the wheel rewards have been Michelangelo's Scripts and resource speed-up items (Blast Furnace and Double Saw, for example). When I expand the chat box to its maximum height, there are TEN recipients of Scripts alone. To be honest, I can't really recall the last time I even saw anyone win one of those from the wheel at all, much less ten people in a span of about 60 seconds.

    There seems to be a pattern to what is getting rewarded from the wheel, and it doesn't seem to be truly random at all (as if anyone really thinks it's totally random in the first place).

    On Most Servers (Both Ages) / Playing Since May 2009

  2. #2

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    It's impossible for a program to ever be random. Random is only an illusion created when a programmer sets up an equation that processes a number based on an ever changing variable (like time, which is the most common). Your best bet is to try "spinning" the wheel at a different time of day.
    Last edited by Tophyr; 06-22-2009 at 09:36 AM. Reason: spelling
    Don't get me wrong, I love this game. I just hate the way it's handled.

  3. #3
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    I just received a system message in-game that said the amulet drop value has been increased times four for today. As the message said in the topic, it has been increased remarkablely.

    It's REMARKABLY.

    On Most Servers (Both Ages) / Playing Since May 2009

  4. #4
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    Quote Originally Posted by Sarasca View Post
    I just received a system message in-game that said the amulet drop value has been increased times four for today. As the message said in the topic, it has been increased remarkablely.

    It's REMARKABLY.
    i recently made a city on server 16 couple days ago i logged in, got my amulet, and soon as i clicked the wheel (before it even loaded fully) i had a quest icon appear, i watched the wheel, it landed on a lion medal, i checked the quest after , and surprise surprise it was the quest for getting a lion medal, so the countless 10 spins or so it made around the wheel meant nothing because my reward was defined from the very start... not so random if you ask me.

  5. #5
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    As tophyr said there's no true randomness. And randomizers in programming languages are based on a time veriable. That said, the calculations are extremely fast and so it shouldn't be like the next bunch of people in 10 minutes get the same object.

    I personally think the wheel is weighted. I think that every item has a certain point value and so the lesser ones are easier to acquire. Which you know, I can live with that. No cheaper then gambling.

    Also, one more thing. Have you noticed the wheel has been behaving differently? It used to slow right down like in the Wheel of Fortune, but now it just stops mid speed on something as if there was a "random" push of the stop button by the system.
    Last edited by chinothepony; 06-22-2009 at 10:27 AM.

    "Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind" ~Einstein
    "lol well wine usually helps boost the wood"~LG
    "Today a young man on acid realized that all matter is merely energy condensed to a slow vibration, that we are all one consciousness experiencing itself subjectively, there is no such thing as death, life is only a dream, and we are the imagination of ourselves. Heres Tom with the Weather."~Bill Hicks

  6. #6

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    Oh brother. We can go on and on about why "true randomness" doesn't exist in computers, but that's besides the point. I studied Linear Congruential Generators for an entire semester, and that topic is as boring as hell.

    "Pure" randomness aside, is the roulette wheel weighted? Yeah - I'd be willing to bet that it is. Items appear to have the same probability of being won because of the number of squares they occupy, but I'm willing to bet that, behind the scenes, they're doing some adjustments.

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Tophyr View Post
    It's impossible for a program to ever be random. Random is only an illusion created when a programmer sets up an equation that processes a number based on an ever changing variable (like time, which is the most common). Your best bet is to try "spinning" the wheel at a different time of day.

    This.

    With an online game, it's possible to create random to you because player action can manipulate the result. Random being uncontrolled, that translates to true random because how many people are on, what they decide to do is pretty much out of any one persons control.

    It doesn't look like Evony uses this sort of consideration because as you said, it's text book what shows up on any given day.

  8. #8
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    Actually a program was designed that achieved a truly random number. The seed number is based off of a graphical interpretation of an actual candles flickering flame. So never say never.
    ~SiN~

  9. #9

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    That's cute but simply wrong. If you are right and they did achieve that it is still not random. When given enough variables everything is predictable.
    Last edited by Tophyr; 06-22-2009 at 10:39 AM. Reason: spelling, yeah i suck at it
    Don't get me wrong, I love this game. I just hate the way it's handled.

  10. #10
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    this isn't the one I was talking about but its all I could find, this is truly random:


    We use 'Quantum Random Bit Generator' (QRBG121), which is a fast non-deterministic random bit (number) generator whose randomness relies on intrinsic randomness of the quantum physical process of photonic emission in semiconductors and subsequent detection by photoelectric effect. In this process photons are detected at random, one by one independently of each other. Timing information of detected photons is used to generate random binary digits - bits. The unique feature of this method is that it uses only one photon detector to produce both zeros and ones which results in a very small bias and high immunity to components variation and aging. Furthermore, detection of individual photons is made by a photomultiplier (PMT). Compared to solid state photon detectors the PMT's have drastically superior signal to noise performance and much lower probability of appearing of afterpulses which could be a source of unwanted correlations.
    Last edited by NegativeZero; 06-22-2009 at 11:20 AM.
    ~SiN~

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