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Thread: A Question of True Randomness

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  1. #1
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    In over 200 spins:

    I have not once received bonus coins (not even the 10 coins one)

    I have received a junior battalion roughly 20 times and 0 of all the other battalions combined.

    I received the lowest lvl free hero item 8 times and only twice gotten one of all the higher lvl hero items combined.

    That to me is enough proof that the wheel is weighted.




    Now can we get back on topic about random number generators.
    Last edited by NegativeZero; 06-22-2009 at 12:39 PM.
    ~SiN~

  2. #2

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    There are actually several cool examples of people who have figured out ways to reliably profit from programs that use very poorly implemented LCGs (Linear Congruential Generators) for their RNGs (Random Number Generators).

    Probably the best example I can think of is of an engineer in Nevada who bought a computer blackjack kiosk for his home. Apparently these computer blackjack kiosks exist all over Nevada.

    Anyway, the engineer took the kiosk apart and discovered one incredibly deep flaw about the blackjack kiosk's program: it used a very old chipset and a very poorly implemented RNG that exhibited streaks and low periodicity. (Periodicity is how many "random" numbers an RNG generates before it repeats the cycle again. All LCG RNGs exhibit periodicity - the good ones just have an insanely large period.)

    Anyway, the engineer figured out that, because of the program's poor design, certain deterministic patterns would appear in the cards after dozens of quasi-random hands.

    So the engineer went around to find all the old kiosks he could find, and would basically play the game with very small bets until the telltale signs that a pattern was coming would appear. Then he increased his bets substantially. Since he knew which cards would come up, he made boatloads of money.
    Last edited by EvNoob; 06-22-2009 at 12:41 PM.

  3. #3
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    and you said this topic was boring
    ~SiN~

  4. #4

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    Quote Originally Posted by NegativeZero View Post
    and you said this topic was boring
    Maybe you're right. LCGs and RNGs are a very boring topic to study though - I can assure you of that.

    Here's one more story about LCGs and RNGs. It's not as good as the Vegas Blackjack one, but this one actually happened to me.

    Years ago, when I was straight out of school, I was interviewing for a job with a Reinsurance company. Reinsurance companies are, essentially, insurance companies for other insurance companies. For certain risks that are too large for a single insurance company (i.e., Hurricane damage in Florida), they spread that risk to Reinsurance companies.

    So anyway, I was interviewing for this job with this company, and my interviewer is describing a problem he's been seeing with one of his models. At the time, he was prototyping his model on an old Windows 3.11 Workstation.

    At that time, the Windows 3.11 OS had a very bad RNG and, sure enough, that's what he was using for his prototype. I suggested that he just create his own LCG RNG using large prime numbers for the function's coefficients, and he got much more reasonable results.

  5. #5

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    http://www.random.org

    The atmosphere is random, and can apparently generate numbers for our use in the world of unpredictability.

  6. #6
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    True random does not exist. There is order in the most complex of systems. The bug which used to allow you to "pick" an item off of the wheel was fixed. I never exploited it because I have enough character not to; however, it could have been exploited very easily. This would have thrown off any idea of a "random" selection.

    We will continue this conversation when one of you can solve for Tan90. I have done it and, in the process, irritated a mathematics professor.

  7. #7

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kempion View Post
    We will continue this conversation when one of you can solve for Tan90. I have done it and, in the process, irritated a mathematics professor.
    Are you stroking something?

  8. #8
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    Quote Originally Posted by Kempion View Post
    True random does not exist. There is order in the most complex of systems. The bug which used to allow you to "pick" an item off of the wheel was fixed. I never exploited it because I have enough character not to; however, it could have been exploited very easily. This would have thrown off any idea of a "random" selection.

    We will continue this conversation when one of you can solve for Tan90. I have done it and, in the process, irritated a mathematics professor.
    Woah there, now we're getting into p/np, and if you could prove one way or another, you would be famous in the world of mathematics and a millionaire and probably employed doing something more meaningful that posting stuff on the forums which annoys people. I do believe there is no np, but since as far as I know it hasn't been proven yet, you can't assume that there ARE answers to seemingly infintely complex problems.
    You load sixteen tons, what do you get
    Another day older and deeper in debt
    Saint Peter don't you call me 'cause I can't go
    I owe my soul to the company store

  9. #9
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    Always. Both hands.
    I have a lotta ego.

  10. #10

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    Quote Originally Posted by Kempion View Post
    I have a lotta ego.
    Well, you shouldn't.

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