Okay everyone has these wacky theories on the drop rate, but I think I have the answer(don't flame). I am still gathering proof, but I think the drop rate is a formula with one added variable: troops killed.
That's right, I think the more troops get killed in battle, the better chance you have of getting a medal. Now why do I think this? Well a couple clues.
1. In the quest description, it says and I quote "The higher level the valley is, the better chance you have of getting a medal." Since higher valleys have more troops, more troops would be killed when you attack. This would also explain why you almost always get a medal when attacking with your Spearhead wave when trying to conquer a level 10 NPC.
Also would explain why so many people are in favor of sending warriors to die, saying that increases the drop rate.
2. Utilizing this information to your advantage: Create a very large scout army( I mean HUGE), and send them out in waves on the highest valley that could contain that particular medal. Since scouts have a low defense, a lot of them will die, but you will win by sheer numbers. This will also be a very fast way to get medals because scouts are extremely fast.
Good luck medal farming with my new strategyI hope it helps.

I hope it helps.

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