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I believe the honor factor is relatively meaningless.
The prestige/members ratio is a lot more telling to me when I am evaluating targets.
For example, when the Tweedles alliance first appeared on my server, they were ranked in the mid 50's with 11 players. All the alliances around them were in the 90's.
Clearly, they were much more formidable opponents. On paper. Naturally, since prestige never goes down, only up, that's not to say they couldn't be easy targets -- nothing to say they didn't have 11 cities total at that particular moment with zero troop strength between the players.
Thus, I don't really think there is a generic truism you can use to properly evaluate.... it more or less becomes a judgement call based on previous experience and other factors.
For example, your cities on my server aren't all that far away... but I'd only scout or attack them if I wanted to commit suicide
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