here's my experience in case it helps anyone else:

Attacking lvl 2 and 3 lakes

1 hour and 50 minutes

50 Attacks

6 Cross Medals
7 Lion Medals
4 Rose Medals

About a 1 in 3 chance which ain't bad, if you have the time.

Lost about 2200 scouts during the first 40 attacks, the scout spam portion of the experiment. Now it's taking about 6 minutes for each attack since I'm using regular troops.